I get a number of newsletters each day from a number of sources. Most of them are repetitive and duplicate one another. One is from FOX, their Fox News First Daily Politics newsletter.
I have a growing distaste with some of the FOX mainliners, mostly Brit Hume and Charles Krauthammer. Both are GOP establishment propaganda artists. However, the mainline reporting of the news on FOX is still “Fair and Balanced.”
One feature of this daily newsletter is their political power index—which candidate has the most potential coming out #1 for the GOP nomination—the survivability factor. I admit, I’ve been skimming this for a while. But today, FOX actually gave a brief explanation of the index. It’s worth reading and the same for their analysis.
The article begins with an analysis of Jeb’s campaign and his reported long-term plans—mainly to be a disrupter hoping to still be around when the dust settles. His recent attacks against Marco Rubio were examples according to the article.
But is it possible that Bush can knock out Rubio, Kasich, Christie and Carly Fiorina and be the last man standing to face the surviving member of the Donald Trump–Ben Carson–Ted Cruz tontine?
One of the reasons that Cruz continues to lead the index is that just such a scenario looks likely: An establishment candidate who emerges badly damaged by Bush’s attacks – or is Bush himself – proves unable to contend with the well-funded, well-organized Cruz, who continues to look best situated to survive his bracket.
Bush’s strategy involves winning a civil war within a civil war before March. And then face not some late-breaking Huckabeatific candidate scrambling to raise funds and build out staff but rather a juggernaut with cash reserves. Carson raised $10 million last month alone and is building a sizable campaign. Cruz may have close to $100 million when all is said and done.
But is it technically possible that Bush could survive the second civil war and destroy the conservative wing’s candidate or that the conservative would belatedly self-destruct? Yes, technically.
After that long ugly slog, though, what are the chances that Bush would be able to turn and pivot to fight a successful general election campaign against Hillary Clinton? She’s wrapping up her nomination now, and would be ready to unleash hell on her fellow dynastic claimant.
An establishment candidate without an electability argument for the general election is like a turtle without a shell: squished too easily. And that’s why the donors who made Bush into the $100 million man will now withhold the money he needs more desperately than ever.
1) Ted Cruz; 2) Marco Rubio; 3) Ben Carson; 4) Carly Fiorina; 5) Donald Trump; 6) Chris Christie [+2]; 7) John Kasich; 8) Jeb Bush [-2]; 9) Mike Huckabee [+1] ; 10) Rand Paul [-1]
On the radar –Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore
— Fox Newsletter, November 2nd, 2015.
I am a Cruz supporter. I also like a number of the other candidates—Carson, Jindall, Fiorina and more distantly Rubio. I can accept any of them as the GOP candidate.
The power index has Trump as #5. While I can understand why he’s popular—and I agree with many of his statements, he’s become an artist of hyperbole and when pressed for specifics, doesn’t answer. I do applaud his tax plan. At least he has one and many others don’t. I like a flat tax—as long as there are no exceptions in the plan, nor specific taxes on a particular segment of taxpayers.
Ben Carson knocked Trump out of the lead in Iowa. It’s one state and too early to tell if it is a trend in other states.
One of Carson’s strengths, as well as for Trump, is that he’s seen as a Washington outsider. That is also true of Cruz. Yes, Cruz is a sitting Senator. He’s also been that lone voice speaking for the country and conservative values with occasional support by Rand Paul and to a lesser extent from Marco Rubio.
Cruz has an enviable track record. That’s a steep hill to climb for Carson or Trump, even for Rubio whose credentials are not, from a conservative viewpoint, as good as that of Cruz. Rubio is still tainted by his pronouncements on illegal immigration and favoring open borders. The whole immigration and open border issue will be critical in the coming years. We’re being invaded and Obama and the democrats are allowing that invasion. Rubio is on the wrong side of the issue.
So, for me, it’s Cruz all the way…and according to FOX’s Power Index, he has the funds and determination to win through to the nomination. I’ve seen nothing to say or indicate otherwise.