Polls and more polls

The 2014 general election is twenty-six days away. As expected, numerous races around the country are tightening, shifting. The surprise from the latest round of polls is the shift, in some races, from dems being in the lead to ‘Pubs.

Kansas, perhaps, was the greatest surprise. Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback, a few weeks ago, were trailing significantly against their liberal opponents, Greg Orman and Paul Davis. Both ‘Pubs were behind at least 5% points, more for Roberts. A poll released this week shows a significant shift.

The latest batch of Fox News polls reveal that as voters tune in to midterm contests they’re flipping past Democratic candidates as President Obama’s dire unpopularity takes its toll. In Kansas, where the president sits at 63 percent disapproval, Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., is turning his race around. Roberts leads independent Greg Orman 44 percent to 39 percent. A mid-September Fox News Poll had Orman leading 48 percent to 42 percent.
[After a slew of unfavorable polls, Gov. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., has also rebounded, leading Democrat Paul Davis 46 percent to 40 percent.]

Two Republican incumbents are fighting to keep their jobs in Kansas.The new Fox News poll finds both of them — Sen. Pat Roberts and Gov. Sam Brownback — have jumped ahead of their challengers.


“We know that partisanship tends to assert itself as Election Day nears,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll along with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson.“And that may be happening in Kansas.”

The Senate race clearly remains competitive, as 44 percent of likely voters in Kansas back Roberts, with 39 percent for independent Greg Orman and 3 percent for libertarian Randall Batson. Yet Orman was up by six points in a two-way matchup three weeks ago (48-42 percent).

Democrat Chad Taylor withdrew from the race September 3, and subsequently the court decided a Democrat does not have to appear on the ballot.

Roberts has a bit more strength of support: 82 percent of his backers say they are certain to vote for him. It’s 76 percent for Orman.

Some 73 percent of Republicans back Roberts, while 71 percent of Democrats support Orman. Independents go for Orman by 45-34 percent. Roberts maintains his overall vote advantage because there are so many more Republicans than Democrats in the Sunflower State.

Men are supporting Roberts by 50-37 percent, while women back Orman by a narrow 40-38 percent margin. — FOX News.

If you dig deep into the polls, you will find one consistency that appears to be driving the shift—Obama’s continuing drop in favorability among voters. That increase in dissatisfaction is spreading to democrat candidates.

Alaska is another state showing a shift against dems. ‘Pub Senatorial candidate Dan Sullivan is another beneficiary of Obama’s disapproval by voters. Sullivan is now leading democrat Mark Begich 44% to 40%. Prior polls were too close to call in that race. One cause for Begich’s slide was a particularly libelous ad that Begich was forced to pull.

‘Pubs in the Arkansas, Colorado and Kentucky Senatorial races benefit in Obama’s slide as well. ‘Pub Representative Tom Cotton, leads democrat Senator Mark Pryor, 46 percent to 39 percent.

In Colorado, with its liberal-leaning metropolitan areas, a voter backlash against liberal democrats appears to be building. Mark Udall, the incumbent democrat Senator, is behind his ‘Pub opponent.

The unpopularity of ObamaCare could sink Sen. Mark Udall’s, D-Colo., re-election prospects with 52 percent saying the law “went too far.” While Obama held a 54 percent approval during Fox News 2012 exit polling in the state, he now holds a 57 percent disapproval. Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Ky., now tops Udall 43 percent to 37 percent. — FOXNewsletter, October 9, 2014.

Republicans in Colorado are much more enthusiastic than Democrats about the upcoming election, and that explains — at least in part — why the new poll shows Rep. Cory Gardner topping Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall by 43-37 percent.

Among likely voters here, nearly half of Republicans (48 percent) are “extremely” interested in the election, while less than a third of Democrats (31 percent) feel that way. This could be even more important here than in some other battleground states because Colorado now votes 100 percent by mail and people can register to vote up through Election Day.

Gardner’s support is stronger, with 85 percent of his backers “certain” to vote for him compared to 80 percent of Udall’s.

Independents (+15 points), men (+17), gun owners (+29) and white evangelical Christians (+38) are more likely to back Gardner. — FOX News.

Even in Kentucky, where democrat candidate Allison Lundergan Grimes once lead Mitch McConnell, Obama is the anchor dragging her down (not to mention a particularly damning video where Grimes is seen to say she’ll vote differently, more liberally, after being elected.) A shift in the independent vote has McConnell leading, 45 percent to 41 percent.

Even projected voter turn-out appears to be shifting against the democrats. The Washington Examiner published an article with their turnout expectations.

A new Gallup poll suggests voter turnout will be low in November, with higher Republican turnout predicted… Gallup found enthusiasm higher among the GOP, a result that suggests Democrats may have a more difficult time on get-out-the-vote efforts needed to support their candidates. Among those motivated to vote, 44 percent were Republican and 28 percent were Democrats.

However, it is proper for us to remain pessimistic and work harder to win next month. We may have a shift in the polls but there is only one poll that counts, the one taken on Tuesday, November 4th, 2014.

1 thought on “Polls and more polls

  1. Dave Perdue, Georgia GOP candidate said, “If you don’t like what goes on in Washington, then you need to change who you send to Washington.” I agree. They did not listen! Send Them Packing!

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