Valid polls or manipulated polls?

I did not intend to enter the Akin mess. The dems love it and think it will save McCaskill’s senate seat.  The ‘Pubs are mostly running in circles, screaming and shouting with incoherence. And the people of Missouri…still like Akin? That is what one poll seems to say.

By Alexandra Jaffe – 08/21/12 06:55 AM ET

Two new polls suggest Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) is still competitive in his race for Missouri’s Senate seat despite the firestorm over his controversial comments on rape.

A poll released by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) late Monday still gives Akin a single-percentage-point lead over incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), the same lead he posted in a PPP poll from late May.

A Survey USA poll, however, finds that a majority of Missourians believe he misspoke and want him to drop out, but that Akin still has support among Republicans in the red-trending state.Akin tops McCaskill by 44 percent to 43 in the PPP survey, nearly identical to their May poll where he led by 45 percent to 44, but the edge is within the survey’s 4-point margin of error.

The new PPP survey was taken between 6 and 9 p.m. Central Time on Monday — after Akin’s comments had been widely publicized and he had been asked by senior Republicans to drop out of the race.

His persistent lead — even as 75 percent of voters and over two-thirds of Republicans in the PPP poll say his comments were inappropriate — is likely due to McCaskill’s persistent unpopularity in the state. A majority, 53 percent, of Missourians disapprove of the senator, and the same percentage of independent Missourians disapprove of her as well, indicating she’ll have an uphill battle to sway voters to back her in the general election.

Still, Akin has a pretty lukewarm rating with Missourians, too, with a full 58 percent rating him unfavorably. Even those who voted for then-GOP presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in 2008 are largely split over Akin, with 40 percent saying they view him favorably and 39 percent saying they view him unfavorably.

On the other hand, The National Review Online has a contrary piece. They believe the poll above is blowing smoke because it was weighted to favor GOP over dems by a 9 point spread. The NRO postulates the numbers may have been purposely fudged to help keep Akin in the race.

Our friend Jim Geraghty over at NRO has put on the green eye shades this morning to take a look at the poll numbers in the Todd Akin Senate race.

Over at HuffPo and AOL they are hyping a poll purporting to show that even after Akin’s rape comments he’s doing just dandy in the polls — tied with McCaskill.


Jim took a look and discovered that the number of GOP’s versus Dems was…9 points!  Which is to say, the suspicion is that the poll is deliberately weighted to produce a pro-Akin result….so that Akin will stay in the race. Jim also sweetly points out that Public Policy Polling is a Democrat-leaning polling outfit and asks:

“Anyone suspect that the Democrat polling firm might be trying to get the result they want, to ensure Akin stays in, so that he can get pummeled in November?”

I didn’t vote for Akin. But he did win the primary.  If Akin had been a democrat running for the the senate, the dems would have closed ranks behind Akin regardless of his statement. ‘Pubs however, will throw a candidate under the bus at the least provocation. For the establishment ‘Pubs, politics beats principal every time.

1 thought on “Valid polls or manipulated polls?

Comments are closed.