Election Prognostications

The November General Election is a month away and races across the country are tightening. I’ve been following the Kansas Senatorial (Roberts vs. Orman), and to a lesser extent, the Gubernatorial (Brownback vs. Davis), race. My prediction: Roberts and Brownback are toast.

I’d prefer ‘Pub wins in both offices but that is not going to happen. Kansas has always had a strong RINO contingent. The reality of Kansas politics is that liberals have always ruled the state either outright as democrats or stealthily as RINO ‘Pubs. Brownback’s win for Governor in 2010 as a conservative is a rarity.

The reasons for the Brownback’s probable loss is different from Roberts. For Roberts, it is his time to go. He ran a vile, mudslinging race against Milton Wolf and alienated the state’s conservatives. Now that he needs their votes, they aren’t there. They still remember Roberts’ negative primary campaign and they will either vote against Roberts or not vote at all.

Brownback’s probable loss is different. He was betrayed by ‘moderate’ ‘Pubs who banded together to support democrat Davis for Governor.

Why? Many reasons, some because Brownback is a conservative and took on the state’s Education Mafia. Others back Davis because Brownback is trying to cut Kansas taxes. That, the traitor’s believe, means budget cuts for education.

Kansas education is over-funded. The problems with education in Kansas aren’t due to a lack of funds, it is because those funds have been squandered on non-education projects. Lining the pockets of the education unions for one. Whenever any education reform is attempted, the Education Mafia runs to the courts; courts that have been loaded over the years with liberal, activist judges from local circuit courts up to the state Supreme Court. Just look how that court rewrote state law with the dems wanted to remove their own senatorial candidate to shift votes to their other candidate, Greg Orman.

From my perspective as a non-Kansas resident, Brownback is a great governor. Kansas, as a state, however, is still ruled by an liberal oligarchy that despises conservatives.

Roberts is a lost cause. He’s drawn heavily on outside help from the NRSC, who helped Roberts campaign against Wolf, to pulling in Ted Cruz to schmooze the conservatives. Cruz was a good idea…until Roberts’ NRSC assistants pull a boner like this one.

Why the GOP will probably lose Kansas in just one Tweet

  streiff (Diary)  | 

If you want to smell the flopsweat hitting the Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS), re-election campaign, there is no better example than this tweet from the NRSC:

The GOP is attacking a guy for being a successful businessman. Does this make sense? Are we against people avoiding taxes? If so, I missed the memo because the GOP is against Obama’s war on corporate inversions. Should I run out and vote for an out-of-touch septuagenarian porkmeister who only survived a primary challenge because of attacks on his opponent that were beneath the dignity of any creature aspiring to the status of “man?”

Walsh, like his fellow-traveler the slightly befuddled Brad Dayspring, seem to have no talent at all beyond attacking conservatives and using the most disgusting calumnies to do so.

If you don’t object to your money being wasted by their truly bizarre choices of candidates to support, then, for Heaven’s sake, be offended that your money is being squandered by idiots.

I repeat my mantra from yesterday:

“I can protect myself from my enemies, but Heaven help me to protect myself from my friends.”

Yaaawn…

What a week. I’ve been busy, the news-feeds are fixated, perhaps rightly so, on the Ebola outbreak. Commentators say the CDC is lying. Others say they aren’t. No one, except for a privileged few, really know what is going on nor the danger of a widespread outbreak.

I’m not interested in writing about Ebola. While my major in college was the equivalent of Pre-Med, I am not a medic, nor an EMT. I don’t claim to have any special knowledge other than a high-degree of well-earned skepticism. The real truth of it all, in my opinion, is that no one really knows what will/could/may happen with Ebola.

Change subject.

The political news has vanished from the national news scene in favor of Ebola. CNN is on a witch-hunt searching for contaminated sheets and clothing in Dallas. Ditto for most of the MSM.

In Kansas, Pat Roberts is losing…a result of his own garbage-strewn primary race that alienated his conservative core. All the so-called ‘moderates’, i.e., democrats masquerading a ‘Pubs, are publicly backing Greg Orman, the democrat running as an independent. Yeah, sure.

http://images.politico.com/global/2014/01/15/140115_sam_brownback_ap_605.jpg

KS Governor Sam Brownback speaking before the Kansas Legislature.

The same applies to Sam Brownback who is discovering he can’t buck the über-liberal education and union lobby plus their lust to spend. The Kansas establishment thought they could control Brownback. When they found they couldn’t, they turned to supporting a democrat, thus exposing their true allegiance.

And to top it all off, the Royals are in the playoffs for the World Series. Their run came at an appropriate time to redirect attention to baseball instead of politics. Whatever bangs their gong.

On the Missouri side, Representative John Diehl, the golden-boy chosen years ago to be the next Speaker of the Missouri House, is running into trouble. Conservatives are openly supporting his opponent in an attempt to remove him from office. The conservatives claim that Diehl is no ‘Pub and has blocked significant numbers of crucial, conservative legislation. They are out for payback.

And so the week ends. I’m ready for the weekend.

News from the front…

Democrats, liberals and ‘moderate’ republicans (AKA, RINOs), are backing Paul Davis for Kansas governor against Sam Brownback. They received a surprise over the weekend about Davis. Their fair-haired boy, isn’t as clean-cut as they had presented to the political public.

Davis tangled in 1998 drug raid at Kansas strip club

By Tim Carpenter, Saturday, Sept. 20, 2014, timothy.carpenter@cjonline.com
http://m.cjonline.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/mobile_story_full/13717054_2.jpg

Paul Davis, democrat candidate for Kansas Governor.

Democratic governor nominee Paul Davis was swept up 16 years ago in a law enforcement raid on a Coffeyville strip club based on an informant’s tip about alleged drug dealing, documents showed Saturday.

Davis, a single 26-year-old rookie attorney not yet elected to public office, was briefly detained with others inside the club by officers of the Montgomery County Sheriff’s Department. Davis wasn’t accused of wrongdoing, but the raid resulted in arrest of nightclub owner Marvin Jones in connection with trafficking methamphetamine.

In a story initially reported by the Coffeyville Journal, a series of documents obtained under the Kansas Open Records Act placed Davis at a venue called Secrets in August 1998.

“I was taken to a club by my boss — the club owner was one of our legal clients,” Davis said in a statement. “While we were in the building, the police showed up. I was never accused of having done anything wrong, but rather I was in the wrong place at the wrong time.”

Confirmation of the incident emerged as statewide polling affirmed Davis maintained a 4-point lead over Republican incumbent Sam Brownback in a three-person race that includes Libertarian Keen Umbehr.

The Brownback campaign declined comment on disclosures published by the Coffeyville newspaper, but an official with the Kansas Republican Party condemned Davis.

“Davis’ behavior, whatever he was doing to or with that woman in the ‘VIP room’ while his client was dealing meth in the bar, demonstrates a total lack of judgment and is the kind of behavior that Kansans will find totally unacceptable in someone who wants to be governor,” said Clay Barker, the party’s executive director.

Law enforcement documents containing narratives of the raid indicated Davis had been found by an officer in a back room with a topless woman. Both were ordered to the floor while officers secured the building. Davis, according to the reports, told the officer he was an attorney for the club’s owner.

Davis, elected to the Kansas House a dozen years ago, had apparently traveled to the southeast Kansas club in 1998 with a law firm colleague James Chappell.

The Davis campaign distributed a statement Saturday from Independence Police Chief Harry Smith, who helped lead the raid at Coffeyville. He said Davis had been “questioned briefly and released.”

“At the time of my encounter with Paul, he was totally cooperative and was not involved in any wrong doing,” Smith said. “Paul was only one of 20 or more people present in the club when the raid was conducted.”

In addition, Davis accused the Brownback campaign of raising public awareness of the 1998 episode to distract voters.

“I’m not at all surprised Sam Brownback and his allies are digging up all they can to distract Kansans from the fact they remain down in the polls,” Davis said. “Kansans deserve better than a desperate smear campaign.”

Davis used the standard liberal tactic when caught with their pants down—blame their opponent. But, it the shoe had been on the other foot, Davis and his backers would have been screaming through the root about Brownback.

Erick Erickson’s Red State website dug a bit deeper into the incident. When the drug bust started, the cops found Davis alone with a stripper, who wore only a g-string, receiving a lap-dance. You can read about the incident here.

Regardless, it’s all Brownback’s fault. Sound familiar?

Hypocrites!

***

An end of franchises? Maybe.

A story appeared this week about the federal government’s attack on small business owners. Unions, particularly the SEIU, is supporting the government in this attack.

Earlier in the summer, the NLRB, as part of an attack against McDonald’s, declared that franchise employees were to be considered employees of the McDonald’s parent company, not of the franchise holder. When the unions were pressuring McDonald’s to raise their minimum wage to $15/hr, the franchises were not affected. They were employees of separate, small businesses, not employed by McDonald’s.

Not so, said the NLRB!

Sorry, Unions: Franchises Are Real Small Businesses, Too

If the Obama Administration has its way, Ronald McDonald may soon have to wipe that grin off his face as he stands beneath the Golden Arches. One of the most successful models for expanding small-business ownership in America is under full-scale attack from unions and the White House.

The political strategy is to fundamentally change the legal relationship between locally owned stores like McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), Popeyes (NASDAQ:PLKI), Taco Bell (NYSE:YUM) and their multibillion-dollar parent companies.

No longer would franchisees be legally classified as independent contractors to the parent company. The left wants the employees of each of the hundreds of thousands of independently owned franchise restaurants, hotels, retail stores and others to be considered jointly employed by both the independent franchisee and parent.

 This change would overturn a 30-year legal precedent for how the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) deals with franchisees.

As of now, entrepreneurs can purchase and run their own stores. Likewise, the parent company is sheltered from legal risks associated with the actions on the part of the independent franchisees. Furthermore, regulations such as ObamaCare that apply to large businesses do not affect smaller franchise operations.

With this change, parent companies with deep pockets could also be targets for shakedowns and lawsuits any time that there’s a grievance with a locally operated store.

Legal experts worry that the franchising model could become extinct. The stakes are huge because by the end of this year, the more than 770,000 of these independently owned franchise stores nationwide are expected to employ more than 8 million workers.

More than 31,000 automotive businesses, more than 155,000 fast-food restaurants and nearly 90,000 real estate businesses are part of this model.

The first serious assault against franchising came in June, when the city of Seattle, at the urging of the Service Employees International Union, enacted a $15-an-hour minimum-wage law applying to businesses with more than 500 employees.

The catch here is that the law applies to franchise businesses if the parent company and all its stores employ more than 500 workers. So a local Wendy’s (NASDAQ:WEN) restaurant with only 20 or 30 employees is considered a big business.

Venture capitalist Nick Hanauer, a member of the mayor’s minimum-wage committee, explained the reasoning in an email: “The truth is that franchises like Subway and McDonald’s really are not very good for our local economy.”

He blasted franchise agreements as “economically extractive, civically corrosive and culturally dilutive.”

Then in July, the franchise model took another hit when the National Labor Relations Board’s general counsel ruled that McDonald’s. can be held legally liable for labor violations because the parent company is a “joint employer” in all its thousands of stores. If this rule, now under legal challenge, were to stand, it would have huge consequences. The parent company could be liable if a McDonald’s store in, say, Rockford, Ill., violated overtime pay or workplace discrimination laws.

The column continues for several more paragraphs at the Daily Signal website. Former US Solicitor General Paul D. Clements Is representing the industry and claims the NLRB is vacating decades of settled labor law in their declaration against franchise owners.

If you are a franchise owner, would you be surprised to find yourself declared a “big business” by the feds? Your 20-employee operation would have to stand side-by-side with companies like GM, AT&T, or Apple. Suddenly, you would have to compete with them in the tax, regulation, and financial arena. Want to guess how long you’d last?

No, I didn’t think so. It’s another federal, statist-sponsored attack against capitalism.

Evolution

When I retired from Sprint—kicked out the door that is, one of the ‘retirement’ bennies was keeping our cell phones, for Mrs. Crucis and myself, on the employee phone plan. I used my employee discount to upgrade our cell phones to the latest one available at the time, an android smartphone. It was the best available when I retired.

That was over three years ago, almost four. Times have changed. Our original smartphones only had 512mb internal memory. The ‘external’ memory card was for data storage. That amount of memory worked well for almost four years.

The problem that eventually arose is that apps run in internal memory. Many—most, are loaded at startup and every one wants its piece of that internal memory. Over the years, after app update after update, those apps grew, demanding more and more memory…and that…is where the problem arose.

When some of the core apps need memory, they seize it from the free, available internal memory. When there isn’t enough memory, bad things happen. Apps stop, the phone locks up, or, those apps that allow swapping internal memory with storage, grow slooow.

Our new phones arrive this week. They have over 4gb internal memory and up to 64gb external storage. I hope they last another three-four years.

***

I’ve been waiting to see this item announced by the MSM. So far this morning, nothing has been said. (So far, only the Washington Free Beacon and FOX News are reporting on this issue.)

Putin is rattling his cold-war saber. Long range Russian bombers have bee flying along the coasts of the US and now they are practicing launching long-range cruise missiles from outside the northern Canadian border. The real issue is that NORAD, the old North American Air Defense command is a shadow of its former self.

In the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, we had the DEW line (Distant Early Warning) across Alaska, Canada and Greenland. Later, we also had BMEWS (Ballistic Missile Early Warning System) that reached from Alaska to the UK. The easternmost leg of that system was in northern Scotland, the western leg ended in the Aleutian Islands. In addition to these two systems, we also had a line of over-the-horizon radar and radio intercept sites all along our northern and European borders with the old USSR.

We still have capability to detect Russian incursions into our territory and to monitor them off our coasts. The real problem is that we don’t have the capability, in aircraft and bases, to defend ourselves if Putin’s practice launches, and wargames, become real.

With all this in mind, What have you heard from the MSM? Russian bombers have been stalking us for some time and, whether we acknowledge it or not, Cold War II is in full force.

Russian Strategic Bombers Near Canada Practice Cruise Missile Strikes on US

Nuclear launch rehearsal conducted in North Atlantic

BY: , September 8, 2014 5:00

Friday Follies for September 5, 2014.

http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/ap_kris_kobach_dm_120424_wblog.jpgI’ve a followup from yesterday’s post. Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, must remain on the November ballot, according to Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach. It seems that, according to Kansas law, Taylor can only withdraw at this point if he is unfit to hold the office.

Uh-oh!

If Taylor makes that claim, it could mean he’s also unfit to hold his office as Shawnee County (KS) District Attorney. Caught between a rock and a hard place, aren’t you, Chad?

But let’s assume that Taylor did drop out leaving Pat Roberts running against “independent,” Greg Orman? Orman claims he hasn’t decided which party he would caucus with if he won. It’s significant that some of his backers are a number of so-called “moderate” ‘Pubs. You know whom I speak, the liberals masquerading as republicans. These are the same groups who are also backing democrat Paul Davis against ‘Pub Sam Brownback for Kansas Governor. A Pat Roberts spokesman said:

“…some members of Traditional Republicans for Common Sense had revealed their true colors by endorsing Democrat Paul Davis for governor rather than backing Republican Gov. Sam Brownback.” — Topeka Capitol Journal.

If the Kansas Senate race becomes a two-dog race, is Roberts a shoo-in? No, according to an article that appeared in the American Thinker.

Democratic Senate candidate in Kansas withdraws

By Rick Moran, September 4, 2014

The Kansas Senate race, which was supposed to be a breeze for long time GOP Senator Pat Roberts, just got very interesting.

Democratic candidate Chad Taylor told the Kansas secretary of state that he was withdrawing from the race, leaving the field clear for a head to head match up between Roberts and independent businessman Greg Orman.

Politico:

Orman, 45, has shown some fundraising prowess throughout the campaign, raising more than $670,000 through mid-July.

The development could have serious implications in the battle for control of the Senate. Once viewed as a GOP lock, Kansas may now emerge as a critical race in determining whether Republicans return to power for the first time in nearly a decade. Republican outside groups — which had been mainly focused on four red states and battlegrounds states like Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire — may be forced to spend money to save Roberts’ seat.

A mid-August poll of likely voters from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling showed Orman beating Roberts 43-33 in a head-to-head matchup, while Taylor was shown losing narrowly. Randy Batson, a Libertarian candidate, will also be on the ballot.

Roberts’ camp quickly sought to cast Orman as a Democrat in disguise, calling Taylor’s withdrawal a “corrupt bargain between Greg Orman and national Democrats including Senator Harry Reid that disenfranchises Kansas Democrats.”

“Orman is the choice of liberal Democrats and he can no longer hide behind an independent smokescreen,” the Republican’s campaign said in a statement.

Travis Smith of Axiom Strategies, a Roberts consultant, said the campaign will give Orman, whom he said wasn’t really taken seriously as a contender until Taylor withdrew, a “full, thorough vetting.”

“I don’t think he can get away with it,” Smith said.

Orman has spent time as both a Democrat and Republican, but he emphasizes that he’s spent more of his life as an independent or unaffiliated voter — and most of his political donations have gone to independent candidates.

While Kansas is a solidly GOP state, the rise of the tea party has alienated many moderates in a state with a long-standing tradition of centrist lawmakers. As the state GOP has moved sharply to the right, it has created an opening — not just for Orman, but also Democrat Paul Davis in this year’s governor’s race against conservative incumbent Sam Brownback.

Orman has vowed not to vote for either of party’s standard-bearer as Senate leader. His campaign website describes North Dakota Democrat Heidi Heitkamp and Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski as potential leaders he could support, willing to buck their party “to vote for what is right.”

Is Orman a Democratic stalking horse? Whether he is or he isn’t, that’s how Roberts is going to portray him. He is probably not going to get all the Democratic votes that Tayor was going to receive, which means he will have to draw a lot of non-alinged voters to his side in order to beat Roberts.

Possible, but not probable.

Roberts’ real danger is in a credible Libertarian candidate who might draw just enough Republican votes to deny him victory.

Orman has several things going for him:

1. Kansas is a cheap media state so Orman can compete on a somewhat equal level.

2. Roberts is disliked by a majority of Kansans who think he has been in Washington too long.

3. The state GOP is divided and Tea Party Republicans may stay home on election day.

This is a recipe for disaster and unless Roberts is successful in getting people to believe that Orman is really a Democrat in independent clothing, he will be in trouble in November.

It is quite possible that the Kansas Senate race—and Gubernatorial race, will turn into a free-for-all. No one knows who will come out on top.

And so it goes…

The title of today’s post is taken from one of my favorite songs by Billy Joel. I don’t agree with his politics, but I do like his music.  The title also applies to the machinations of the GOP elite from Washington attacking home-state conservatives.

We had the Mississippi fiasco with a number of looong service ‘Pub senators like McConnell, Cornyn, and Missouri’s Roy Blunt, feeding Thad Cochran’s camhttp://www.americanthinker.com/images/bucket/2014-07/192774_5_.jpgpaign. Next, we had ‘pub Senators feeding Pat Roberts money against Milton Wolf. Now, we find more RINOs siding with democrats against other ‘Pub conservatives. This time it is local Kansas RINOs against ‘Pub Kansas Governor Sam Brownback.

RINO stampede in Kansas

By Thomas Lifson, July 16m, 2014

The headline from AP certainly is alarming: “100 Kansas GOP endorse Democrat for governor.” And the lead paragraph continues the theme:

Democratic challenger Paul Davis sought Tuesday to give his campaign for Kansas governor a bipartisan boost by announcing endorsements from more than 100 moderate Republicans who’ve split with conservative GOP Gov. Sam Brownback over education and tax policy.

You might be wondering, to borrow Thomas Frank’s infamous book title, “What’s the matter with Kansas”? I can’t claim to be an expert on the Jayhawker State, but it does appear that this is a matter of sour grapes:

Six state senators on the list lost their seats in 2012 primaries to Brownback-favored candidates, including former Senate President Steve Morris, of Hugoton.

Brownback, after winning the governor’s office in 2010 with 63% of the vote, has moved aggressively to implement a conservative agenda, cutting income taxes. This has rankled the government industry and its many rent-seekers. The good old days when everyone gouged the taxpayers and shared their wealth among the ruling class are missed.

Speaking of old:

Many of the former lawmakers have been out of office for at least a decade.

“When was the last time any of them took a day and walked a precinct to talk with today’s voters about the voters’ concerns?” state GOP Executive Director Clay Barker said.

State Rep. J.R. Claeys, a conservative Republican, was even more dismissive, tweeting, “and they really raided the nursing home for some of them.”

So how’s the Brownback program working out for Kansas?

Brownback campaign spokesman John Milburn responded to the new group’s criticism by noting that since Brownback took office in January 2011, Kansas has gained more than 50,000 private-sector jobs. He also pointed to enactment this year of an education funding plan boosting aid to poor school districts.

“Governor Brownback is focused on leading Kansas by growing the economy, investing in education for future generations, and preserving the bedrock values of hard work, faith and family,” Milburn said.

But the new group backing Davis said Brownback’s “experiment” with tax cuts has impeded the economy, with U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing that private-sector job growth has been slower in Kansas than in the U.S. as a whole. The new group also contends spending on public schools remains inadequate.

Put Kansas on the list of states to watch for November.

Kansas has always had a problem with “moderate” republicans. Many of them were democrats claiming the title of republican when they realized they couldn’t be elected as democrats. Johnson County and Wyandotte County, in particular, were infested with these so-called moderates.

Most of them, although there are still a few hold-outs, have been booted out of office by real conservatives. Now those RINOs have shown their true colors. They are supporting liberal democrats against Kansas’ conservatives.

Do they have the strength to affect the election? That is the real question. At this point, no one knows.

 

System Failure! No Post Today

A severe thunderstorm rolled through last night—high winds and rain up to 4″ per hour. The National Weather Service sent a small streams and urban flooding alert earlier in the evening.

Around 2:00am, we lost power. It was out for at least two hours. When I came downstairs this morning, all my servers were powered down. Two were on UPS systems, two were not. All the servers survived. My keyboard however, one I’ve used since the 1990s, a Compaq industrial, high volume keyboard, one we used for my former employer’s call centers, didn’t respond. I finally got it up and running.

It’s on to 10:30am. Everything seems to be working once again. but it’s too late for a normal blog post. Instead I’ll direct you to a  link that documents all the GOP Senators who donated to the Thad Cochran campaign. MIssouri’s Roy Blunt in among the contributors as are both Kansas Senators, Roberts and Moran.

Here is the list of contributors and their donations:

Thad Cochran’s Senate Enablers

GOP Senate Contributions to Cochran
Senator — Amount Given — Phone Number

Roy Blunt (R-MO) — $15,000 — (202) 224-5721

Jerry Moran (R-KS) — $10,000 — (202) 224-6521

Pat Roberts (R-KS) — $5,000 — (202) 224-4774

You can see the entire list by following the link above. Here is another column on the same subject and provides some additional background on the story.

Donor Controversies Hit ‘Mississippi Conservatives’

By 7.8.14

The headline in the New York Times over the weekend was straightforward: “Unease in G.O.P. Over Mississippi Tea Party Anger”:

The stormy aftermath of Mississippi’s Republican Senate runoff has sent Tea Party conservatives around the country to the ramparts, raising the prospect of a prolonged battle that holds the potential to depress conservative turnout in November in Mississippi — and possibly beyond.

Well, there’s an understatement. Just last night Texas Senator Ted Cruz was on Mark Levin’s show talking about “the D.C. machine” running “false attacks” that were “racially charged” and demanding that allegations of criminal conduct — one man reportedly told Charles C. Johnson that Cochran paid him to buy votes — be “vigorously investigated.” There should be “unease” in the Republican Party, as more and more of the base becomes aware of just how cynical GOP leadership has become, and as the curtain continues to be pulled up on all the shenanigans in Mississippi.

At the story’s center is the Mississippi Conservatives PAC, which is on the receiving end of furious charges of race-baiting against insurgent candidate Chris McDaniel and the Tea Party as a whole. But an even bigger problem comes from evidence that the group calling itself Mississippi Conservatives was anything but, illustrating in stunning detail how the establishments and donors of the Republican and Democratic parties intermingle.

The column continues at the American Spectator website. You can read it here.

I don’t expect anymore power outages. At least, not today. I’m thankful there was no lasting damage, just some small fixes. Y’all have a great day and drop back tomorrow.